Recovery Paths

Over the weekend, The Charlotte Observer reported on possible paths of economic recovery. The report contained the perspective of John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd.

Despite some hopeful signs, the Charlotte area’s economy won’t outpace unemployment anytime soon, economists warn.
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Some jobs are gone forever, and those that will replace them could leave the region’s lowest-skilled and least-educated workers struggling to catch up, experts say.
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“The question is, are growth levels adequate enough to get us out of the hole we’re in?It doesn’t look like it,” said John Quinterno of South by North Strategies Ltd., a Chapel Hill economic research firm.

Overstretched Safety Nets

A front-page story in Sunday’s issue of The New York Times looks at the potential human toll of slow economic growth. Especially hard hit will be individuals who have or will fall out of the middle class, yet current social insurance systems are unprepared to accommodate the growing numbers of long-term unemployed. From the article:

“We have a work-based safety net without any work,” said Timothy M. Smeeding, director of the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. “People with more education and skills will probably figure something out once the economy picks up. It’s the ones with less education and skills: that’s the new poor.”

NC’s Jobless Recovery

In the February issue of Business North Carolina, editor Ed Martin explores what a “jobless recovery” would mean for the state’s labor force. The story features the perspective of John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd.

Said Quinterno of the human consequences of a jobless recovery:

“There are a variety of consequences for employees. It injects a lot more uncertainty into their lives — and financial instability. Income swings more wildly. If the spouse has to go to work, there’s the compound issue of child care. Even in a relatively skilled field now, you don’t have much employment or financial security, so that can put a strain on the economy and growth in demand.”
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Fear becomes a factor. “If people are afraid, they’re not going to eat out once a week or go to the movies or write that check to the United Way,” Quinterno says. “It ripples out to the larger economy. If you’re talking about jobless recovery, firms are going to want to add labor when they have the opportunity to sell more goods and services, but they can’t if there’s not much demand for them.”

National Skills Coalition

John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. recently was named to the National Leadership Council of the National Skills Coalition. Based in Washington, D.C., the organization is a “coalition of coalitions” that advocates for public investments in the skills of the American workforce. The Leadership Council serves to develop and articulate the common skills agenda around which the coalition and its members organize and advocate.

Quinterno is one of two North Carolinians serving on the council in 2010. He is joined by Anne Bacon of the NC Rural Economic Development Center.

North Carolina’s “Job Gap”

A front-page story in yesterday’s issue of The Durham Herald-Sun asks just how big of a “job gap” North Carolina is facing.  The piece draws heavily on the work of South by North Strategies, Ltd., especially its research into labor market conditions.

Unemployment Insurance Solvency

The current issue of Triangle Business Journal contains an overview of the issues related to the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina’s borrowing from the federal government to pay unemployment insurance benefits. Once conditions stabilize, steps will need to be taken to rebuild system solvency, and tax matters will come into play. On that topic, the article featured the perspective of South by North Strategies:

“At some point, it’ll have to go up. We’ll have to rebuild the solvency of the system,” says John Quinterno, who writes on public policy issues for Chapel Hill-based South by North Strategies. “This is one of those things you don’t have to deal with yet since you are getting the money to pay the benefits. On this one, credit the feds; they have kept things running.”

A Tattered Safety Net

In a story about the use of North Carolina’s “Work First” program during the recession, The Charlotte Observer included the perspective of John Quinterno of South by North Strategies.

From the article:

John Quinterno, a social-policy consultant in Chapel Hill, noted that food stamp and unemployment insurance caseloads have been exploding during the recession, but Work First hasn’t.
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‘What we’re seeing around the country with the recession is that this program, the way it’s been reformed, really doesn’t serve as a safety net anymore,’ he said. ‘There are some hard questions that need to be asked.’

North Carolina’s Changing Workforce

Yesterday, John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. addressed the first meeting of the Joint Select Committee on Work and Family Balance of the North Carolina General Assembly. Quinterno briefed legislators on the long-term changes to the state’s workforce, particularly the increasing labor force engagement of female North Carolinians. The presentation is below.