South By North In The News

John Quinterno of South by North Strategies Ltd. recently appeared in a news story about the Governor of North Carolina’s recent “State of the State” address.

Meanwhile, John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, a Chapel Hill research firm that analyzes the state’s economy, questioned the impact of the corporate tax cut. He said the tax generally only applies to large companies and most of them already pay a lower tax rate due to existing tax breaks.
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Of the 6.9 percent corporate income tax rate the governor proposes cutting to 4.9 percent, Quinterno said, “While it sounds good, relatively few corporations actually pay it.”
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[Gov. Bev] Perdue will face further pressure from progressives once she rolls out her budget and gives the details of her proposed cuts in programs and services. But Quinterno said she and the Republican-led General Assembly have left themselves few options given the state’s economic and budget circumstances and their unwillingness to raise taxes or revise the state tax code.
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“They are facing a very difficult situation and in some ways they are trying to square a circle,” he said. “They are trying to protect fundamental services, but at the same time trying to do that with a revenue stream and a revenue system that is not able to generate the investments that people say they want. Add to that the whole balanced budget requirement the state has and no one faces very good choices.”

SBN In The News – Feb. 3

• The News & Observer: “Thousands of state jobs might be cut balance budget”
• The News & Observer: “Layoff savings would be modest in first year”
• The Charlotte Observer: “State workers fear layoffs as legislators fill budget gap”
• The Charlotte Observer: “Job-cut savings would be modest, especially in the first year”
• The Winston-Salem Journal: “Jobless numbers mixed in region”
• The High Point Enterprise: “Unemployment rate dips but remains high”
• The News & Observer: “Triangle joblessness slips a bit”
• The Charlotte Observer: “Region’s jobless rate falls slightly”

A Discussion of NC’s Labor Market

John Quinterno of South by North Strategies recently appeared on the syndicated radio program News & Views. Quinterno and the program’s host, Chris Fitzsimon, discussed the state of North Carolina’s labor market in 2010 and looked at key issues for 2011. Click below to listen to the conversation.

Click here to listen.

SBN In The News

South by North Strategies’ analyses of  the North Carolina economy have appeared in numerous recent media stories.

• The Asheville Citizen-Times: “Asheville are gas prices climb”
• The News & Record: “Triad has work to do to increase job stability”
• Charlotte Business Journal: “Charlotte sees big shift on NC incentives”
• NC Independent News: “North Carolina unemployment rate edges up”
• The Winston-Salem Journal: “State jobless rate rise to five-month high”
• The News & Observer: “Unemployment up despite jobs”
• Charlotte Observer: “Feeble job growth pushes up NC unemployment rate”
• The Durham Herald-Sun: “Unemployment up, jobs slow”
  
• The Asheville Citizen-Times: “NC’s December jobless rate edged up”
• Fort Mill Times: “NC’s December jobless rate edged up to 9.8 percent”
• MSN Money: “NC’s December jobless rate edged up”
• Statesville Record & Landmark: “NC’s quarterly jobs report mixed”
• Yes Weekly: “North Carolina’s lost year”

SBN In The News

South by North Strategies’ analyses of  the North Carolina economy have been featured in several recent media stories.

• The Asheville Citizen-Times: “Serious high-cost issues loom in 2011 for Asheville”
• The Durham Herald-Sun: “2010 jobs growth maybe ‘a wash’ “
• The Winston-Salem Journal: “Triad jobless rate rises to 10.2 percent”
• The Durham Herald-Sun: “Jobless rate not the whole story”
• The News & Observer: “Triangle jobless rate inches up”
• N.C.  Independent: “NC faces prospect of many left permanently unemployed”
• Richmond County Daily Journal: “Holidays don’t help unemployment rate”

North Carolina’s Labor Market: 2010 Review

North Carolina’s labor market ended 2010 little changed from the start of the year. Between December 2009 and November 2010, the most recent month for which data are available, payroll employment in North Carolina rose by just 1,400 positions (+0.04 percent). While the number of unemployed Tar Heels and the the statewide unemployment rate fell during the year, much of the decline was due to a troubling contraction in the size of the state’s labor force. And, little evidence suggests that a robust jobs recovery will take hold in early 2011.

One Year, Two Job Markets
North Carolina’s labor market underwent two distinct phases in 2010 (figure, below). The first half of the year was a time of weak but positive growth. Between January and June, net job growth averaged 6,500 positions per month. Total employment increased at a rate of 0.2 percent per month, while the number of unemployed individuals fell at a monthly rate of 1.5 percent. The labor force also grew at a monthly rate of 0.03 percent. The statewide unemployment rate, meanwhile, fell to 10 percent from 11.1 percent.

Much of that progress was the by-product of public policy supports provided by the federal government through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and related initiatives like the homebuyer tax credit and temporary hiring for the 2010 Census. As those supports faded away during the second half of 2010, North Carolina’s labor market sputtered.

Between July and November, net job loss in the state averaged 7,500 positions per month. Total employment fell at a rate of 0.2 percent per month, while the number of unemployed individuals fell at a monthly pace of 0.4 percent. Yet the labor force also contracted at a a monthly rate of 0.2 percent. The statewide unemployment rate, meanwhile, stagnated at a level fluctuating between 9.6 and 9.8 percent.
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