NC and The Great Recession: A Data Portrait
Today, John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. addressed the 2010 Leadership Conference of the Employment Security Commission of North Carolina. Quinterno briefed participants on the state’s economic outlook. The presentation is below.
State Coincident Indicators: Sept.
Economic conditions across much of the nation improved slightly in September, according to the newest State Coincident Indexes Report prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In September coincident indexes moved in a positive direction in 24 states and in a negative direction in 14 states. No changes occurred in 12 states.
The map to the right, which is taken from the Reserve Bank’s survey, shows the three-month changes in coincident indicators by state. Positive numbers denote improvements in economic conditions, and negative numbers refer to declines.
Over the last three months, coincident indexes increased in 31 states, decreased in 12 states and held steady in seven states.
During the same three-month period, North Carolina’s coincident index moved in a positive direction, which suggests improvements in local economic conditions.
Around The Dial – Nov. 3
Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
- Bob Herbert looks at “the fast track to inequality.”
- Triple Crisis argues that the deficit hawks already have won.
- Economix asks if the “Making Work Pay” tax credit will expire.
- Kenneth Rogoff says to “beware of wounded lions.”
- Lost in the election coverage: the fact the economy still needs help.
Service Activity In The South Atlantic: Oct.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s latest survey of service-sector activity in the South Atlantic (District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia):
Service sector activity declined in October, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, although the weakness in several indicators was less severe than a month earlier. Retail sales contraction continued, nearly matching September’s drop. Nevertheless, shopper traffic flattened after falling for four months and big-ticket sales declined more slowly than a month ago. Retail inventories grew for the first time since January of 2010. Revenue weakness at services-providing firms was virtually the same as last month’s. However, survey participants’ predictions for business prospects during the next six months jumped up in October.
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In service sector labor markets, retailers and services providers slowed employee cutbacks in October. Average retail wages were unchanged, while moderate growth in wages at services firms continued.
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Price growth in the broad service sector picked up somewhat compared to a month ago, as this month’s price acceleration at services-providing firms outpaced slightly slower price growth at retail establishments.
Around The Dial – Nov. 2
Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
- The chair of the FCC argues for better wireless networks.
- Economix asks if U.S. labor law is broken.
- Calculated Risk breaks down the new GDP numbers.
- Ezra Klein considers the future of health-care reform.
- The Wall St. Journal reports on the expansion of health coverage.
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