South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Workforce Testimony

Around the Dial – Jan. 20

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Economix blogs about wives who earn more than their husbands.
• The Stash says a deficit commission can’t work.
• Elizabeth Warren explains why the Consumer Financial Protection Agency matters.
• Robert Skidelsky explains “the bogey of inflation.”

The Job Crisis in Brief

A new fact sheet from the Economic Policy Institute places the ongoing job crisis in context. Among the findings are the following (as of January 8, 2010):

• Number unemployed: 15.3 million (up from 7.5 million in December 2007)
• Portion of unemployed who have been jobless more than six months: 39.8%
• Total jobs lost during the recession: 8.1 million
• Jobs lost in December 2009: 85,000
• Jobs needed to return to pre-recession unemployment rate: 10.6 million
• Number of jobseekers per job opening: 6.4
• Unemployment rate: 10.0%
• States with double-digit unemployment in November 2009: 15
• White unemployment: 9.0%; black unemployment: 16.2%; Hispanic unemployment: 12.9%

Credit Conditions in the Southeast

A December survey sponsored by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank offers insights into the credit needs and experiences of businesses in the South (not including North Carolina). The survey suggests that a lack of sales, not unusually tight credit conditions, are dissuading firms from seeking credit. Additionally, most firms that are seeking credit report being able to access it. Reports the Atlanta Fed:

So, how did businesses surveyed respond? Slightly more than half the respondents said that they had sought to obtain a loan or line of credit from a bank in the last six months. The primary reasons given by those seeking credit were to replace an existing loan (cited by 50 percent of those respondents) and/or to obtain additional working capital (cited by 45 percent of those respondents).
….
The degree of difficulty firms felt they had in obtaining credit was mixed, with about 60 percent of respondents saying they were able to obtain all or most of the bank credit they sought. The small size of the survey (206 respondents) limits the accuracy of any sector-by-sector comparisons. However, it is interesting to note that construction firms stood out as the business type that had the greatest difficulty having their demand for financing satisfied, with 70 percent of them saying they were unable to obtain the funding they sought. That percentage compares with 50 percent of small manufacturers surveyed and 25 percent of retailers responding they were unable to obtain the funding they desired.
….
Of those businesses that had not sought credit during the last six months, the dominant reason given was poor sales/revenue (cited by 55 percent of those respondents). Other reasons for not seeking additional credit included sufficient cash reserves.

Although this survey is neither national nor definitive in scope, it points to an economy hampered by a lack of demand. Writes the Atlanta Fed:

To the extent that the firms in our survey are representative, it appears most going concerns have been able to obtain all or most of the credit they need. What they don’t have are customers.

Around the Dial – Jan.19

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Paul Krugman asks about the politics of economic policy.
• The Wall Street Journal looks at the tightrope being walked by the FHA.
• The Baseline Scenario urges Congress to pass good financial reforms.