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17.03.2014 News Releases, Policy Points No Comments

Mixed Messages In First Jobs Report Of 2014

CHAPEL HILL, NC (March 17, 2014) – In January, employers in North Carolina eliminated 7,200 more payroll positions than they added (-0.2 percent), due almost equally to job losses in the private and public sectors (-3,700 and -3,500, respectively) The monthly household survey, however, recorded a drop in unemployment, with the statewide unemployment rate falling to 6.7 percent, which was the lowest monthly figure logged since August 2008.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The January employment report offers mixed messages about the health of North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “On the one hand, more people reported being employed in January compared to December. On the other hand, the number of payroll jobs in the state declined slightly, with losses occurring throughout the public and private sectors.”

Between December 2013 and January 2014, North Carolina employers shed 7,200 more jobs than they added (-0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls lost, on net, 3,700 positions (-0.1 percent), and public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 3,500 jobs (-0.5 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector shed the most jobs (-5,600 jobs, or -1.3 percent, with all of the decline occurring in the accommodation and food service subsector), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-5,300 jobs, or -0.7 percent, with all of the losses occurring in the retail trade subsector) and the professional and business services sector (-3,200 jobs, or -0.6 percent, with almost all of the decline occurring in the administrative and waste management subsector). With the seemingly anomalous exception of the construction sector, most other major industry groups recorded few changes in payroll levels between December and January.

A revision to the December payroll data found that the state gained 3,400 fewer jobs that month than first estimated (+7,700 versus +11,100). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 71,000 fewer payroll positions (-1.7 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,485 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 257,800 positions (+6.7 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“Revisions to the 2013 data reveal that North Carolina netted 21,100 more jobs over the course of the year than first reported,” noted Quinterno. “While positive growth always is welcome, the average monthly rate of job growth recorded in 2013—a rate of 0.2 percent—was identical to the average monthly rate of job growth logged in 2012. No matter how one parses the data, North Carolina has been experiencing extremely slow job growth for close to four years.”

The household data recorded in January offered a more positive view of the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 percent, which was the lowest monthly rate recorded since August 2008, when the rate was 6.6 percent. Additionally, 17,407 more North Carolinians had jobs in January (+0.4 percent) than was in December, and 11,354 fewer persons were unemployed (-3.5 percent). And over the month, the size of the state’s labor force essentially held steady at 4.7 million.

While the household data for the month of January generally were positive, the data for the past year were less so, even after accounting for annual data revisions. The state’s unemployment rate fell by 2.1 percentage points over the course of 2013, but a sizable portion of the decline was attributable to a contraction in the size of the state’s labor force. Between January 2013 and January 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 105,656 persons (-25.3 percent). Approximately 57.1 percent of that decline resulted from a drop in the size of the labor force (-60,373 persons, -1.3 percent), while 42.9 percent resulted from an increase in employment (+45,283, +1.1 percent).

Declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market that is under-performing. In January, the labor force participation rate held steady at the revised December 2013 figure of 61.1 percent. That rate was the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since 1976. Moreover, the labor force participation rate fell steadily over the last year. Between January 2013 and January 2014, this important measure of labor utilization fell by 1.5 percentage points, dropping to 61.1 percent from 62.6 percent.

Although another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, increased slightly between December and January, the current ratio of 57 percent is 0.1 percentage points lower than the corresponding figure logged in January 2013 and just 0.7 percentage points above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in the summer of 2011.

January’s labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Between December and January, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 1.7 percent, dropping to 59,878 from 60,889. Compared to a year earlier, 67,396 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in January (-53 percent).

Also in January, the state paid a (nominal) total of $49.1 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 58.3 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $117.7 million paid in January 2013.

“North Carolina’s labor market started 2014 the same way it ended 2013: mired in a painfully slow recovery that simply is not generating enough jobs, fast enough to accommodate all those who want and need work,” cautioned Quinterno. “In many ways, the state’s labor market began 2014 stuck in the same low gear where it has been for most of the past four years.”

07.02.2014 News Releases, Policy Points No Comments

Cold Open For US Labor Market In 2014

CHAPEL HILL, NC (February 7, 2014) – The national labor market added in January 113,000 more jobs (+0.1 percent) than it lost. After accounting for annual statistical updates, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons in January were essentially unchanged from the prior month.

In January, 10.2 million Americans were unemployed (6.6 percent), while 7.3 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. Another 837,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.6 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

“January was the 40th-straight month of job growth recorded in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In 2013, the national economy netted an average of 194,000 jobs per month. Yet the country is still some eight million jobs short of the number needed to replace the jobs lost since 2007 and to accommodate subsequent population growth.”

In January, the nation’s employers added 113,000 more payroll positions than they cut (+0.1 percent). Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+142,000), while government employers eliminated 29,000 more positions than they added.

Moreover, the payroll employment numbers for November and December underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 349,000 jobs over those two months, not the 315,000 positions previously reported. Additionally, annual methodological updates revealed that the national economy netted 136,000 more jobs in 2013 than first estimated; the bulk of the gain was due to a definitional change that resulted in the inclusion of a new industry—services for the elderly and persons with disabilities—in the official statistics.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most over the month in the construction industry (+48,000), followed by the professional and business services sector (+36,000, with 56.7 percent of the gain occurring in the professional and technical services subsector) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+24,000, with 70 percent of gain occurring in the accommodation and food services subsector).

“During 2013, the American economy gained 2.3 million more payroll positions that it lost,” noted Quinterno. “Nevertheless, the average monthly rate of job growth in 2013—some 194,000 positions per month—will not close the nation’s jobs gap anytime soon.”

After accounting for annual statistical updates, labor market conditions as measured by the household survey were relatively unchanged from December. Last month, 10.2 million Americans (6.6 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. In January, the share of the population participating in the labor force equaled 63 percent.

Compared to a year ago, 1.8 million more Americans were working in January, and 2.1 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (58.8 percent) remained at a low level.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (6.2 percent versus 5.9 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (12.1 percent) and Hispanic workers (8.4 percent) than among white ones (5.7 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 20.7 percent.

Additionally, 5.6 percent of all veterans were unemployed in January, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 7.9 percent. At the same time, 13.3 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in January. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 12.7 percent, down from the 14.4 percent rate logged a year ago. Not only were 10.2 million Americans unemployed, but 7.3 million individuals worked part-time jobs despite preferring full-time work. Another 837,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about the labor market that they had stopped searching for work.

Among unemployed workers, 35.8 percent had been jobless for at least six months (compared to 37.9 percent a year earlier), and the average spell of unemployment equaled 35.4 weeks, which was unchanged from a year earlier.

In January, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 52.3 percent of unemployed persons. Another 28.4 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11.4 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 7.9 percent of the total.

“The January employment report offers yet more evidence of an underperforming labor market,” observed Quinterno. “The bottom line is that the American economy is not generating enough jobs for all those who want and need work. Despite the passage of six years since the onset of the ‘Great Recession,’ the United States’ jobs crisis remains far from over.”

05.02.2014 News Releases, Policy Points No Comments

Local Unemployment Rates Drop In December

CHAPEL HILL, NC (February 5, 2014) – Between December 2012 and December 2013, unemployment rates fell in all 100 of North Carolina’s counties and in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over the same period, however, the number of people who reported having jobs actually decreased in 42 counties and 6 metro areas. That suggests that drops in unemployment were intertwined with the exiting of people from the labor force; in fact, the size of the labor force decreased in in 92 counties and in 14 metro areas over the year.

These findings come from new estimates released by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates fell across all of North Carolina over the past year, with the statewide rate falling by 2.8 percentage points,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Many counties and metros now are experiencing some of the lowest unemployment rates recorded since the onset of the ‘Great Recession’ in December 2007.”

“We can’t lose sight of the fact that local unemployment rates across North Carolina remain elevated,” added Quinterno. “In December, 99 counties and 14 metro areas posted unemployment rates greater than those logged six years ago.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.7 percent fewer payroll jobs (-71,200). In December, the state added 11,100 more jobs than it lost (+0.3 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,578 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 256,600 positions (+6.7 percent). At that rate, all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many payroll jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

Between November 2013 and December 2013, local unemployment rates decreased in 86 of the state’s 100 counties, rose in 11 counties, and held constant in 3 counties. Individual county rates in December ranged from 4.1 percent in Orange County to 12.6 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 5 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 58 counties posted rates between 6.7 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets still are struggling relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In December, 7.5 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 6.3 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 5.5 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 30.6 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the rural labor force has fallen by 3.5 percent.”

Between November and December, unemployment rates fell in all 14 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (9.4 percent), followed by Fayetteville (7.8 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (7.2 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (4.9 percent), followed by Asheville (5 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (5.2 percent).

Compared to December 2012, unemployment rates in December 2013 were lower in all 100 counties and all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 92 counties and in 14 metros. In fact, the statewide labor force was 2.3 percent smaller (-111,164 individuals) in December 2013 than it was in December 2012.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the greatest rate (-5.3 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-4.2 percent) and Burlington (-3.3 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.8 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains muted. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 4.2 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in December totaled 6 percent. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest December unemployment rate (5.2 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (6.6 percent) and Charlotte (6.7 percent).

The local employment report for December also provides insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 33,157, down from the 62,681 initial claims filed a year earlier (-47.3 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (3,079), followed by Wake (2,066), Guilford (1,889), Forsyth (1,029), and Cumberland (1,024) counties.

In December 2013, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $62.2 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $237.3 million received in December 2012. This sharp decline (-73.8 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes to eligibility criteria.

Additionally, the state’s decision to exit the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program reduced the amount of federal unemployment insurance compensation flowing into the state in December. Between December 2012 and December 2013, the amount of federal unemployment insurance benefits paid to North Carolinians fell by 97.5 percent, dropping to a (nominal) total of $3.1 million from a (nominal) total of $121.8 million.

“Despite recent declines in local unemployment rates, 2013 proved to be another weak year for local labor markets across North Carolina,” said Quinterno. “The fundamental problem facing the state is the same one that has troubled it for the past four years: a sluggish recovery that is not generating enough employment opportunities for all those who want and need them.”

28.01.2014 News Releases, Policy Points No Comments

2013 Another Weak Year For Job Growth

CHAPEL HILL, NC (January 28, 2014) – Over the course of 2013, employers in North Carolina added 64,500 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.6 percent), due entirely to hiring in the private sector. Yet both the absolute number of jobs added in 2013 and the rate of job growth recorded over the year were below the corresponding values logged in 2012 (+89,900 jobs, +2.3 percent). Put differently, 2013 saw little deviation from the pattern of anemic job growth that has troubled the state since the onset of the labor market recovery in early 2010.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The December jobs report offered mixed news about job growth in North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “On the one hand, job growth turned positive again in December, and as a result, the year’s final quarter proved to be its best one for job growth. On the other hand, North Carolina netted fewer jobs over the course of 2013 than it did in 2012.”

Between November and December of 2013, North Carolina businesses added 11,100 more jobs than they eliminated (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 10,600 positions (+0.3 percent), and public-sector payrolls netted 500 jobs (+0.1 percent). Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+4,500 jobs, or +0.6 percent, with 84.4 percent of the gain occurring in the retail trade subsector), followed by the other services (+2,100 jobs, or +1.5 percent) and finance sectors (+1,900 jobs, or +0.9 percent).

A revision to the November payroll data found that the state lost 1,600 fewer jobs that month than first estimated (-4,900 versus -6,500). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 71,200 fewer payroll positions (-1.7 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,578 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 256,600 positions (+6.7 percent). At that rate, all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“Over the course of 2013, North Carolina netted jobs, on average, at a rate of 0.1 percent per month,” noted Quinterno. “In 2012, the state gained jobs, on average, at a rate of 0.2 percent per month, and in both 2010 and 2011, the comparable average rate of growth was 0.1 percent per month. While positive growth always is welcome, the state’s labor market has experienced the same basic pattern of slow job growth for the past four years.”

At first glance, the household data recorded in December offered a positive view of the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.5 percentage points to 6.9 percent, which was the lowest monthly rate recorded since September 2008, when the rate also was 6.9 percent. Additionally, 19,217 more North Carolinians had jobs in December (+0.4 percent) than was the case in November, and 21,097 fewer persons were unemployed (-6.1 percent). And over the month, the size of the state’s labor force essentially held steady at 4.7 million.

While the household data for the month of December generally were positive, the data for the year as a whole were not. The state’s unemployment rate fell by 2.5 percentage points over the course of 2013, but most of the decline originated in a contraction in the size of the state’s labor force. Between December 2012 and December 2013, the number of employed North Carolinians rose by just 13,414 persons (+0.3 percent), yet the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 124,344 persons (-27.8 percent). The remaining 110,930 individuals left the labor force entirely, meaning that North Carolina ended 2013 with a labor force that was 2.3 percent smaller than was the case a year earlier. In fact, North Carolina’s labor force now is approximately as large as it was in the middle of 2011.

Declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market that underperformed in 2013. In December, the labor force participation rate fell to 61.2 percent, which was the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since 1976. In fact, the labor force participation rate fell steadily during 2013. Over the year, that important measure of labor utilization fell by 2.1 percentage points, dropping to 61.2 percent from 63.3 percent.

Although another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, increased between November and December, the current ratio of 57 percent is 0.4 percentage points lower than the corresponding figure logged in December 2012 and just 0.7 percentage points above the 37-year low of 56.3 percent posted in the summer of 2011.

December’s labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Between November and December, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance increased by 4.2 percent, rising to 60,889 from 58,432. Compared to a year earlier, however, 49,942 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in December (-45.1 percent).

Also in December, the state paid a (nominal) total of $59.1 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 48.8 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $115.5 million paid in December 2012.

“The sizable drop in the state’s unemployment rate in December does not alter the fact that 2013 was yet another underwhelming year for North Carolina’s labor market,” observed Quinterno. “Job growth lagged behind the pace recorded in 2012 and was consistent with the uninspiring performance of the past four years. While the unemployment rate did fall sharply over the course of 2013, the number of employed persons barely changed, meaning that unemployment fell due to people leaving the labor market altogether rather than finding work.”

“None of 2013 data suggest that North Carolina’s labor market has turned a corner and has moved onto a more robust, more sustainable trajectory.”

10.01.2014 News Releases, Policy Points No Comments

US Labor Market Underwhelms In December

CHAPEL HILL, NC (January 10, 2014) – The national labor market added in December just 74,000 (+0.1 percent) more jobs than it lost. While the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons fell last month, much of the decline was due to people exiting the labor market rather than finding work. Last month, the size of the labor force shrank by 347,000 individuals (-0.2 percent) and now is smaller than it was one year ago.

In December, 10.4 million Americans were unemployed (6.7 percent), while 7.8 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. Another 917,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.4 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

“December was the 39th-straight month of job growth recorded in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the past year, the national economy netted an average of 182,000 jobs per month. Yet the country is still almost eight million jobs short of the number needed to replace the jobs lost since 2007 and to accommodate the subsequent growth in the size of the working-age population.”

In December, the nation’s employers added 74,000 more payroll positions than they cut (+0.1 percent). Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+87,000), while government employers eliminated 13,000 more positions than they added, due mainly to cuts by local governments.

Furthermore, the payroll employment numbers for October and November underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 441,000 jobs over those two months, not the 403,000 positions previously reported.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+69,000, with 80.1 percent of the gains occurring in the retail trade subsector), followed by the professional and business services sector (+19,000, with virtually all of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste services subsector), and the manufacturing sector (+9,000). Payroll levels in all other major sectors either declined (led by construction, -16,000) or were essentially unchanged from November.

“Since last December, the American economy has gained 2.2 million more payroll positions that it has lost,” noted Quinterno. “While the rate of growth had been accelerating in the months prior to December, the average monthly rate of job growth over the past year—some 182,000 positions per month—will not close the nation’s jobs gap anytime soon.”

Labor market conditions as measured by the household survey deteriorated in December. Last month, 10.4 million Americans (6.7 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. Both the unemployment rate and the total number of unemployed persons were lower than in the prior month. In December, the share of the population participating in the labor force fell to 62.8 percent, a rate lower than the one posted a year ago and one tied for the lowest rate logged in the past 35 years. This indicates that unemployment fell largely due to a contraction in the size of the labor force rather than an increase in employment.

Compared to a year ago, 1.4 million more Americans were working in December, and 1.9 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (58.6 percent) remained at a depressed level.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (6.3 percent versus 6 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (11.9 percent) and Hispanic workers (8.3 percent) than among white ones (5.9 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 20.2 percent.

Moreover, 5.5 percent of all veterans were unemployed, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 7.3 percent. At the same time, 11.9 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in December. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 13.1 percent, down from the 14.4 percent rate logged a year ago. Not only were 10.4 million Americans unemployed, but 7.8 million individuals worked part-time jobs despite preferring full-time work. Another 917,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about the labor market that they had stopped searching for work.

Among unemployed workers, 37.7 percent had been jobless for at least six months (compared to 39.1 percent a year earlier), and the average spell of unemployment equaled 37.1 weeks, down from an average duration of 38 weeks in December 2012.

In December, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 51.3 percent of unemployed persons. Another 29 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 11.5 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 8.2 percent of the total.

“The December employment report offers evidence of an underperforming labor market,” observed Quinterno. “Last month, job growth slowed markedly and joblessness increased as a result of individuals abandoning the labor market altogether. The bottom line is that the American economy is not generating enough jobs for all those who want and need work.”

“Despite the passage of six years since the onset of the ‘Great Recession,’ the United States’ jobs crisis remains far from over.”