South By North Strategies, Ltd.

The Recovery Act At Work

Off the Charts summarizes the recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report estimating the impact of the Recovery Act on employment levels. As of the second quarter of 2011, the Recovery Act has increased the number of employed Americans by between 1 and 2.9 million and lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.5 and 1.6 percentage points (see graph, below).

Around The Dial – September 1, 2011

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• John Gertner checks in on the state of industrial policy.
• Martin Wolf points out that the recession never really ended.
• Brad DeLong is confused by “Ben Bernanke’s dream world.”
• Felix Salmon rounds up what you need to know about Greece but don’t.
• Jeffrey Sachs mulls “the economics of happiness.”

NC Unemployment Claims: Week of 8/13/11

For the benefit week ending on August 13, 2011,  11,072 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 108,633 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were more initial and fewer continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 10,781 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 109,375 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the averages of initial and continuing claims were lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 12,699 and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 133,208.

While the number of claims has dropped over the past year so has covered employment. Last week, covered employment totaled 3.7 million, down from 3.8 million a year ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims (as a share of covered employment) in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. Also, the four-week average of new claims is now roughly at a level last not seen since October 2008. Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

A Self-Inflicted Decline?

Malcolm Fraser, a former prime minister of Australia, argues that the United States is suffering from “a self-inflicted decline.”

America’s current fiscal problems are rooted in a long period of unfunded spending. Bush’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the manner in which he conducted the “global war on terror” made matters much worse, contributing to a totally unsustainable situation. Indeed, Obama inherited an almost impossible legacy.
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In the weeks since the debt ceiling agreement, it has become increasingly clear that good government might be impossible in the US. The coming months of campaigning for the US presidency will be spent in petty brawling over what should be cut. The example of recent weeks gives us no cause for optimism that US legislators will rise above partisan politics and ask themselves what is best for America.

Around The Dial – August 31, 2011

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Matt Stoller shakes his head at one of  the NY Fed’s “public” representatives.
• Henry Blodget thinks BofA still has capital problems.
• The NY Times profiles the outgoing head of the National Labor Relations Board.
• Mark Thoma argues for providing some economic help to households.
• Harold Meyerson doesn’t want to celebrate our “great offshorers.”