South By North Strategies, Ltd.

A Double Dip?

On his blog, former labor secretary Robert Reich argues that the nation is falling into a double-dip recession.

The only reason the economy isn’t in a double-dip recession already is because of three temporary boosts: the federal stimulus (of which 75 percent has been spent), near-zero interest rates (which can’t continue much longer without igniting speculative bubbles), and replacements (consumers have had to replace worn-out cars and appliances, and businesses had to replace worn-down inventories). Oh, and, yes, all those Census workers (who will be out on their ears in a month or so).
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But all these boosts will end soon. Then we’re in the dip.
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Retail sales are already down.
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So what’s the answer? In the short term, more stimulus – especially extended unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments that are whacking schools and social services because they can’t run deficits.

Around The Dial – June 7

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Joe Stiglitz discusses the tie between “financial re-regulation and democracy.”
• Economix explains the flaws with tax breaks for the managers of private equity funds.
• Marshall Auerback warns against letting the BP crisis go to waste.
• Paul Volcker writes that the time for financial reform is “growing short.”

South by North Strategies In The News

The current issue of the Triangle Business Journal analyzes the pros and cons of a proposed state tax credit for small North Carolina businesses that hire employees. The article features the perspective of John Quinterno of South by North Strategies. From the story:

John Quinterno of Chapel Hill’s South By North Strategies, a research firm focusing on social and economic policy, agrees. “They (lawmakers) are looking at the problem in the right way and believe that public policy can help,” he says. “At that (jobs creation) rate, though, I think you have to ask whether the approach is very promising.”
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Perhaps the state would get more for its dollar, Quinterno adds, by using the $38 million it would forgo in taxes to preserve school employment or other government jobs or to maintain services.
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Can you accomplish more by maintaining state services? It’s a question I think you have to ask,” he says.

Education and State Budget Shortfalls

The PBS NewsHour reports on what state budget shortfalls might mean for public education.

Around The Dial – June 4

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Free Exchange asks if you can feel the employment recovery.
• Economix shows graduation rates by state and race.
• Calculated Risk corrects bad economics journalism.
• Paul Krugman explains why the CRA didn’t cause the housing bubble.