South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Around the Dial – April 12

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• The News & Observer looks at private-sector wage trends.
• The Charlotte Observer asks about layoffs in the public sector.
• Robert Shiller say not to “bet the farm on a housing recovery.”

South by North Strategies Profiled

The current issue of The Carrboro (NC) Citizen contains a profile of John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. The piece discusses Qunterno’s background, the firm’s work, and economic conditions in the Research Triangle. Below is an excerpt from the article:

So what does Quinterno think about the unemployment situation in Orange County? “Our unemployment rate is probably at one of the highest levels that’s been recorded in the last 25 to 30 years, and it’s about 6 percent, maybe a little bit under. That’s a level most places would aspire to even under the best of circumstances. I’m not trying to minimize the fact that it’s severe here, by our relative standards. But the fact is that even though it’s bad here now by historical standards, it’s still pretty good in the grand scheme of things.”
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But he warns that if state governments don’t get federal aid in balancing their budgets this year, there could be more painful job losses in the state workforce, and that could have local effects.

Youth Unemployment Reaches Postwar High

A new study by the Economic Policy Institute finds that the current recession has exacted a heavy toll from workers between the ages of 16 and 24. Last September, the unemployment rate for this population reached the 19.2 percent, which is the highest level recorded since the end of the Second World War.

Moreover, relative to their share of the labor force, young workers are disproportionately represented among the ranks of the unemployed. In fact, one in every four unemployed persons in America is under the age of 25.

The graph (right) places current youth unemployment trends in the context of recent recessions.

Weekend Wonk Out

A round-up of policy reports from the week ending on 4/9:

• Demos looks at trends in student debt.
• CBPP argues that high-income tax cuts should expire on schedule.
• North Carolina analyzes its allied health regional skills partnership.
• EPI studies US trade with China.

Long-Term Unemployment

A new report by the Pew Economic Policy Group finds that 23 percent of all unemployed Americans in December 2009 had been out of work for at least one year. From the report …

Long-term unemployment cuts across nearly every industry and occupation. even in fields with overall unemployment rates that are relatively low, workerswho become unemployed are remaining jobless for long periods of time.Workers older than 55 and those who are highly educated are less likely to become unemployed, but many of them are experiencing long jobless spells once they become unemployed.